**Path**: Top � International Seminar Proceeding � Irecoms � Irecoms 2016

3.7 FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF STUDENTS UNIVERSITY OF MUHAMMADIYAH PURWOKERTO NEXT 5 YEARS USING ARIMA METHOD

Oleh : Joko Purwanto, Malim Muhammad, Lukmanul Akhsani, Universitas Muhammadiyah Purwokerto

Dibuat : 2017-11-09, dengan 1 file

**Keyword :**forecasting, ARIMA Model, student

The purpose of the study to look at forecasting the number of students of University of muhammadiyah purwokerto next 5 years using the method of ARIMA. Currently the UMP has had 11 33 faculty and Courses. The number of students increases every year, the UMP. This is apparent from the number of new students who are more and more in each of the admission of new students. However, the number of new students still have not reached the target i.e. 3500 students. A variety of strategies and the way it's been done by the Bureau for admission of new students (BPMB) UMP to reach the target. However, several strategies were not right on target, so that the candidate's interest in a particular area does not match expectations. From the results of research that has been done, then it can be inferred that the Model of ARIMA (1,1,1) without constant is the best model. The results of the forecasting method of ARIMA for 5 years showed positive increases tend to rise in a row 2917, 3003, 3092, 3183, and 3277. There's a gap increases the number of students in the year 2020 be 3277 students, but necessary strategy.

**Deskripsi Alternatif :**

*The purpose of the study to look at forecasting the number of students of University of muhammadiyah purwokerto next 5 years using the method of ARIMA. Currently the UMP has had 11 33 faculty and Courses. The number of students increases every year, the UMP. This is apparent from the number of new students who are more and more in each of the admission of new students. However, the number of new students still have not reached the target i.e. 3500 students. A variety of strategies and the way it's been done by the Bureau for admission of new students (BPMB) UMP to reach the target. However, several strategies were not right on target, so that the candidate's interest in a particular area does not match expectations. From the results of research that has been done, then it can be inferred that the Model of ARIMA (1,1,1) without constant is the best model. The results of the forecasting method of ARIMA for 5 years showed positive increases tend to rise in a row 2917, 3003, 3092, 3183, and 3277. There's a gap increases the number of students in the year 2020 be 3277 students, but necessary strategy.*

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ID Publisher | jhptump |

Organisasi | Universitas Muhammadiyah Purwokerto |

Nama Kontak | digilibump |

Alamat | Jln. Raya Dukuhwaluh |

Kota | Banyumas |

Daerah | Jawa Tengah |

Negara | Indonesia |

Telepon | (0281) 636751, 630463, 634424 |

Fax | (0281) 637239 |

E-mail Administrator | digilib@ump.ac.id |

E-mail CKO | digilib@ump.ac.id |

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File : 3.7. Artikel Ilmiah_Irecoms_Joko Purwanto.pdf

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